Futures traders are flipping short for the first time to this degree since Sep 2023

In this video, I look at the historical performance of Bitcoin futures traders to see if they got it right this time.

Were futures traders able to time the market and accurately predict the tops and bottoms?

• Wrong: Futures traders went short below 20K in 2020, right before the last bull market began.
• Correct-Then-Wrong: They correctly went massively long all the way to 61K in 2021 but maximized their longs right at the top.
• Wrong: They stayed long as the market crashed.
• Wrong: At the bottom of 2021, around $35K, they went fully short.
• Wrong: Then they went long all the way to $65K and stayed mostly long throughout the bear market.
• Wrong: At the bottom of the bear market in the 16-20K range, they went maximum short.
• Correct-Then-Wrong: They correctly went long afterward but again maximized their position at the wrong time.

Futures traders missed every major market reversal. They were more successful following trends after they had already started but often lost their trend-following gains by going max long right at the tops and riding the decline down.

And now, they are ramping up shorts again on the weekly chart for the first time since September 2023.

Do you think they’ve got it right this time?